Whether you drive a passenger car or a lorry, by 2030 we will all be cruising along at an average of 27 km/h during rush hour (compared to 38 km/h today). That means it will take us 1h51' to cover a distance of 50 km! A disaster scenario from a (bad) American blockbuster, you say? Not at all, this is simply one of the conclusions of a study by the Federal Planning Bureau on the 'Prospects for transport demand in Belgium by 2030'. An illuminating study with some sensational results, which we do not want to withhold from you. For example, the number of tonne-km for the transport of goods in our country is expected to increase by 68% by 2030, with +94% international and +52% national transport. Reason enough to opt en masse for another mode of transport, not least because the saturation of our roads costs a lot of money? Not really: in 2030, trucks will still account for 66% of the total number of tonne-km on Belgian territory (compared to 70% in 2008), while the market share of vans (which are treated separately in this study) will increase from 10 to 11%. Moreover, the increase in 'green' modes of transport in our own country remains relatively small (from 8 to 9% for rail and from 13 to 15% for inland shipping).
The impact of these developments on the environment is of course not negligible. Since road freight transport is responsible for 97% of total greenhouse gas emissions, these emissions will continue to increase with an expected increase of 20%. Thanks to the stricter Euro standards and improved energy efficiency, emissions of local pollutants (fine dust, nitrogen oxides, etc.) will, on the other hand, fall drastically by 2030: -75% for CO, -77% for NOx and -80% for fine dust. According to the Planning Bureau, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to curb our traffic problems and the increasing environmental pollution. Instead, we must focus on a combination of measures - fiscal measures (including the kilometre charge) that encourage a modal shift, as well as new technological developments, measures concerning spatial planning and working hours - with the Planning Bureau pointing out that it is important "to carry out more in-depth studies on each of the possible solutions before introducing transport policy measures".